Year-end budget drama

​We’re beginning to see political theatrics that are common this time of year.
 
Funding to keep the federal government operating expires at midnight on December 8. As long expected, another short-term “continuing resolution” (CR) will be needed by that date since fiscal year 2018 appropriations bills are not yet enacted – and are not even close to being finalized.
 
The President and bipartisan congressional leaders had planned to meet at the While House Tuesday (November 28) to talk about how the year should end for must-pass appropriations bills. Before those bills can be finalized, a deal must be reached on the topline for discretionary spending and on how that topline is divided between defense and nondefense spending.
 
But the meeting fell apart before it even happened. Senate Minority Leader Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Pelosi (D-CA) canceled their participation after the President tweeted about Democrats’ position on immigration, crime, and taxes and added “I don’t see a deal.”
 
The Democrats said that if the President doesn’t see a deal, they’ll simply continue to negotiate with their Republican counterparts in Congress.
 
Many disputes must be resolved before any deal is done. The President insists on money for a border wall, which Democrats oppose. Democrats insist on extending the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which the President announced would end. Democrats also want an increase to nondefense spending equal to any increase to defense spending proposed by Republicans.
 
Any of these could be show-stoppers, and other issues could be piled on to complicate negotiations. Among these are subsidies to stabilize Affordable Care Act insurance markets and reauthorization of the Children’s Health Insurance Program. Disaster aid for states and territories hit by hurricanes and wildfires also must move forward. And let’s not forget tax reform, which, while on a separate track from spending discussions, will take attention away from making final decisions on spending levels.
 
The bottom line for the Appropriations Committees is that they can’t even start their work until there is a topline spending agreement, and, once there is an agreement, they will need at least four weeks to work out details and move a bill through the House and Senate to the President’s desk.
 
Speaker Ryan said on November 14 that the next CR won’t extend into next year. But it’s almost December with no agreement in sight. Congress will go home for the holidays. It will likely be no sooner than January before appropriations cross the finish line, and one or more CR extensions will be necessary until then.
 
During the next few weeks there will be much angst about a possible shutdown, and each side will try to set up the other to take blame if there is one. But a shutdown is still unlikely. Republican congressional leaders realize the political dangers, especially for a party that controls the House, Senate, and White House. Democrat leaders might see a political advantage to a shutdown for which Republicans are blamed, but it’s hard to see many Democrats voting against a simple extension of government funding, if that’s what they are offered. And, while the President tweeted in May “our country needs a good shutdown,” his willingness to strike a deal in September with Democrat leaders on the first CR and debt limit suggests that he’ll look to make another deal this time around.
 
Until then, we, the audience, will have to wait for the next act in this drama to play out.